Here is my value strategy:

Take a good source that also tells you the percentage probability distribution using statistics

Then you take the current odds of your favourite bookie (this is usually the one on whose betting account you have most of your money).

Now follows a comparison of the statistical percentages with the current odds. A quota in percentages or the other way round you simply convert by dividing 1/quota or 1/percent.

Example: Hannover Kaiserslautern 66 20 14 Win odds at e.g. Bet365 is 1.83 for Hannover 1 : 1.83 = 0.546 -☻ makes approx. 55% Makes a Difference of 66% – 55% = 11%.

This 11% is used according to the Kelly strategy Stake according to Kelly is: budget (e.g. 500 €) multiplied by 1/10th of the appreciation (here 11% i.e. 0.11) divided by the odds minus 1 (here i.e. 1.83 – 1 = 0.83).

So in our game 55 divided by 0,83 = 66,26 € stake

The Kelly strategy has the advantage that the bets are calculated according to the probability and the currently available betting balance