In this betting strategy, I calculate a simple estimator for ties. The estimator gives a probability that a match will end in a draw. Since the draw odds are usually very good, this probability makes it easy to find value bets to place

The estimator assumes that teams that have rarely drawn in the past will rarely draw in the future. But now let’s look at the calculation of the estimator:

p_u = (number of draws team A + number of draws team B) / (number of games team A + number of games team B)

If p_u is very low, then the probability of Team A or Team B winning is very high. We can compare the counter-probability p_ab with the odds “double chance 1-2”.

To make the whole thing easier to understand, here is an example from the last matchday (Matchday 14): 1. FC Köln – FC Augsburg

p_u = (3 + 0) / (13 + 13) = 11.54 %
p_ab = 88.46

The odds for a draw were 2.7; converted approx. 37%.

One possibility now is to bet on double chance against a draw This is theoretically worthwhile from odds of 1.13 = 1/0.8856; practically, however, look for higher odds. This is the easy option, which is also not bad. Alternatively, one can assume that it is a 2-way surbet (win/lose) and bet with separate betting providers.

The advantages of this are as follows:

 – Exploiting odds differences.
 – Slightly better odds than double odds
 – Can be used to secure bonuses

In the specific case, I bet €10.50 on 1. FC Köln and €9.50 on Augsburg (stakes must be calculated accordingly so that you make the same profit on both outcomes), i.e. €20 in total. Since Augsburg won the game, I won 28.35€ – that means a return of 40%.

Of course, there is still a certain risk, but in this specific case we can dismiss it as very low with a probability of loss of 11.54%.