Here is my strategy for the probability for draws:

The first step should be to compare a lot of leagues according to the following criterion: How many matches end in a draw in the selected league?

However, after some comparisons, the following becomes apparent: the number of draws varies greatly from league to league.

Example: In the German women’s Bundesliga, approximately every 6.6th match ends in a draw, whereas in the 3rd German men’s league, every 2.77th match ends in a draw.

If you bet the same amount on a draw in every game in the third German league, you should be able to make a profit of about 15-20% over a longer period of time.

Now you should calculate how many games produce a winner. If this is the case with an above-average number of games (e.g. more than every 1.2nd game does not end in a draw), you can bet on double chance 12 in this league.

The odds for this are usually ☻ 1.25. The procedure is the same as for betting on a draw.

Advantages:
 – very low probability of total loss, as the stake is spread over many games.
 – little time needed once you have made a comparison of the leagues
 – strategy takes advantage of “mistakes” made by bookmakers, which in my opinion is the only way to win at sports betting in the long run.

Disadvantages:
 – Initially high time consumption to make the league comparison (I have compared almost 20 leagues so far, betting on one of them and against the draw on one of them is promising).

For those who want to try this strategy, good luck!