Moin, Moin!

I have developed a relatively simple, but 100% effective strategy. It is based on the fact that every club scores a lot of goals in a whole season. The negative record of the last 3 years is held by Bielefeld with only 29 goals in 34 games. (2008-2009 season)

Now to the strategy:

First of all, pick a club (or clubs), that club should NOT be the favourite in most games, because we want to bet on the next goal. For this season, for example, Kaiserslautern and St. Pauli would be suitable, because both clubs are underdogs in almost every game and have proven their offensive potential in the 2. Liga.

Now you always bet on “e.g. St. Pauli scores the next goal”. You now use the Martingale system, i.e. you double the stake if the bet was not successful. The good thing is that the odds for a goal by the underdog are always over 2. Doubling the stake is very safe in this case, because we can look at the statistics of the last years and in a bad case the goal ratio at the end of the season looks like 33:64, which Vfl Bochum achieved last year for example.

For us, this means that the ratio of goals conceded to goals scored is 2:1, and this in a bad case. So after every goal conceded until the 80-85 minute, you can always double your stake or calculate how much you have to bet to make a minimum profit, as the odds are usually over 2. I always double, because the profit is bigger that way every time. But if your club doesn’t score a goal for several games, the odds change to your advantage, because they increase. Of course you can be unlucky and the club doesn’t score a goal for ever, but look at the last years, everybody scores at least 23 goals in a season (Gladbach 2006/2007- 23:44 goals, even here a 2:1 ratio). Therefore, I estimate the probability of falling on one’s face with this system to be very low.

However, I would like to mention that it is only based on statistics and at some point every negative record could be broken, which is unlikely because the level of the Bundesliga is rising and the game of football has become faster. I hope this strategy helps you, but always bet on one team so you can rest on the statistics. Also, you should be able to compensate financially for a losing streak.

The disadvantage is that you have to be present at every game, but from experience missing a game now and then is not a problem. Should your team develop into a permanent favourite, you should look for a new team.

To the critics of the Martingale system, yes, you can have a very long losing streak, but in the strategy used above, it is very unlikely that a team, and then the team you have chosen, will not score a goal for many games.