Hello,

I can well imagine that there are already quite a few models on this topic … but since I haven’t found one here in a hurry, I would like to present this simple and hopefully profitable system

Played is always only a football home win betwhere I am convinced by research of a home win.

Since I want to carry out this test under realistic conditions (1 Unit= 1 €), but there is the requirement to have a maximum of 100 Units as starting capital, at the beginning the stake will be 1/20 of the total capital,

When winning, the stake (also the profit) will of course increase slowly but surely. If a bet is lost, the new capital amount that would result if both bets had been successful is determined first for the next bet. However, I always assume odds of 1.60 on the losing bet. In this way, I prevent the necessary stake from yielding too little profit in the case of a low loss ratio, and the necessary stake from becoming too risky in the case of a higher loss ratio.

If this bet is won, I continue according to the above scheme … However, if this bet is also lost, the stake for the next bet must be as high as necessary to balance both bets, etc. …

So it is important not to suffer a long series of losses at the beginning … because otherwise you will quickly be bankrupt again. But normally it should work out with good research, good odds and of course some luck

As the capital increases, I will then reduce the stake. If the capital increases by 100 units, I lower the stake to 1/40, then the stake is 5 units again, just like at the beginning! And the risk of bankruptcy is greatly reduced. When I reach 300 units, the stake is 1/60 … so 5 units again … at 400 then 1/80 … and at 500 then 1/100. From then on I will not lower the stake any more, because then I have already reached a safety level that allows me to make a sufficient number of wrong tips without inhibiting the progression of the profit … or even going bankrupt.

1/20 = 5 units for the first bet:

St. Pauli – Kickers Emden 1.51

St. Pauli are strong at home, are in good form and have 15 points more than Emden. Want to stay in the race for promotion … Emden are in no man’s land in the table.

The last games of both teams

2006-01-25 St.Pauli – Werder Bremen 3-1
2005-12-21 St.Pauli – Hertha Berlin 4-3
2005-12-10 RW Erfurt – St.Pauli 2-1
2005-12-02 St.Pauli – Werder Bremen II 4-2
2005-11-26 Hamburger SV II – St.Pauli 0-4
2005-11-12 FC Cologne II – St.Pauli 1-2
2005-11-05 St.Pauli – Essen 3-0
2005-10-29 Wattenscheid – St.Pauli 0-1
2005-10-25 St.Pauli – Bochum 4-0
2005-10-22 St.Pauli – Osnabruck 2-1

2005-12-10 Kickers Emden – FC Köln II 3-0 (Köln is last!)
2005-12-06 Wattenscheid – Kickers Emden 3-3
2005-12-03 Essen – Kickers Emden 3-1
2005-11-19 Kickers Emden – Osnabruck 4-0
2005-11-11 Kiel – Kickers Emden 2-2
2005-11-05 Kickers Emden – Carl Zeiss Jena 1-2
2005-10-29 Chemnitz – Kickers Emden 2-0
2005-10-22 Kickers Emden – Munster 0-0
2005-10-15 Hertha Berlin II – Kickers Emden 3-1
2005-10-01 Kickers Emden – Leverkusen II 3-0

St. Pauli – Kickers Emden 4-2

Profit: 2,42 Units
Total New: 102.42