First note: There are no sure bets!!!

Never let anyone tell you that a tip is 100% safe. Only one thing is certain, whoever claims something like that is 100% wrong! (except for Surebets)

I actually only play live bets – because of the often high fluctuations in the odds and thus the possibility of a possible Surebet.

Value-Bet Here is the formula for calculating a value-bet: Value = (odds * probability in %) / 100

If the value reaches a value above 1, it is a value bet.

With value betting, you only bet on the odds that are considered very high in terms of the probability of the result

Example from any matchday (1st Bundesliga 06/07, Matchday 3) Hannover 96 – TSV Alemannia Aachen  Odds: 1 (1.85) X (3.60) 2 (4.70)

This is how I saw the match in terms of probability: 30% / 30% / 40% -☻ (4.7 * 40 / 100) = 1.88 it is a value-bet, because the value is (in this case clearly) above 1

Tip: A good method to find value bets is the following: It often helps to compare the odds of different bookmakers for an outcome. If you find odds at one bookmaker that are significantly higher than those at the other bookmakers, in my experience it is more likely that you have found a value bet.

The difficulty with this strategy is clearly the estimation of the probability. Therefore, you should analyse a lot and read through statistics After all, practice makes perfect. In the example Hannover had lost the first 2 games of the season with a very weak performance, Aachen (promoted) also lost 2 games, but with a strong performance against Bremen and Schalke.

The advantage of live betting is that in the above game the odds before kick-off point to a win for Hannover. Now you can first play your value bet on Aachen. If the underdog takes the lead, as in this case, and continues to follow the game live, nothing can really go wrong. A possible hedge by betting on a draw is possible, but often not necessary.

The match ended with 3 to 0 for Aachen – so stake * odds of 4.7 = nice profit

Of course, the odds for the winner calculated according to one’s own probability are not always so high, but there are often high exceptions.

Good luck!