Hello sports betting friends,
First of all, I ignore statistics, tables, odds, mathematical probabilities, ignore my accumulated sports knowledge like “normally there is a goal here” or normally Barca, Bayern or ManU wins or last week they scored 5 goals.
These are all good clues, but they still lead to doom, because my betting provider doesn’t know the stats and so on. also knows and has taken that into account in his odds. Meanwhile betI don’t bet according to any of these criteria
Wichtig ist auf’m Platz!
I watch the game I always look for a live stream to be able to followthe game. I watched the players – Do they really want to win today? Do they feel like playing football? Is it about what? What’s the body language, facial expressions, how aggressive are they? What’s the atmosphere like in the stadium? Are they being whipped forward by the spectators? Are there goal chances and, most importantly, are the necessary players on the pitch so that chances can actually be converted into goals? Is the favourite the home team and perhaps trailing? In short, is the game hot?
When I find a game like that I bet I usually limit myself to goal bets (e.g. will there be another goal? Yes! or how many goals will there be?).
seed bets are of course also okay if you see that a team wants to win at all costs and plays accordingly and can score goals.
The important point of my strategy: I only bet in exceptional cases. The game has to fascinate me.
In my personal experience it is worthwaitingfor these games. When I bet, 2 out of 3 times I am right and actually winpermanently more moneythan I invest.
This strategy needs patience May well be that I actually bet on only one out of 10 games.
Remember the Bayern vs Freiburg game last Saturday. What was the probability that Bayern would score the winning goal after equalising in the 78th minute? My personal assessment based on the course of the game, the performance of the players, the fans and the overall atmosphere was 95%. The odds at this point for over 2.5 were mostly over 2.0.
Arsenal were playing at the same time. The score was also 1-1 in the 80th minute and in my estimation there still had to be a goal.
Even if not as compelling as with Bayern.
In the last quarter of an hour I only bet that 1 goal will be scored. No matter for whom If the course of the game allows it, I bet at half-time that 2 goals will be scored in half-time 2, but usually in the form of over 1.0 or over 1.5. I don’t bet on extreme results. If a team like Real Madrid or Barca lead 2-0 I don’t bet at all in that game.
Do you know the film “21”? It’s about blackjack. Around the 35th minute of the film, Kevin Spacey as the professor says: “We don’t gamble, we have a strategy. We count cards and only bet when the deck is hot. The film is based on a true story. My betting strategy is based on this sentencetranslated to football.
On average, I have to watch or follow 10 games to come up with a game that matches what is considered “hot”. Waiting for these games is worth it because with a bit of intuition you are very often right and usually with odds of 2.0 and more.
The difficulty lies in the patience Because such games are rather rare and you can’t predict from the start which game will turn out that way. I always think to myself that every bet I don’t make also maximises my profit.
I hope you like my way of betting and you can get some suggestions for your bets
Good luck to all bettors
