Hello everyone,

In the last few weeks, I’ve tried out a few different betting strategies in search of the right one. The strategy should be as safe as possible and involve little research. The odds don’t have to be high, because the higher the odds, the higher the risk and the more research you have to do to play a bet. And winning again and again with low odds also results in a nice profit at some point.

I have therefore tested various low odds in the live betting area, some of which are also recommended here. For example, after 10 minutes in 0-0 games, betting that a goal will be scored in the game. Forget it, there are enough 0-0 games. Or betting from the 85th minute onwards that no more 2 goals will be scored in the match. You can also forget that. Once one goal is scored, a second one is often scored.

Fortunately, I have always played these bets described above with a small stake for testing purposes. I didn’t lose anything, but I gained a lot of experience that I use in my current strategy. I have, of course, kept mulling over the perfect strategy and now I have one where I have never once come close to losing the bet.

I look at the list of all football matches on which you can currently bet live. My preferred provider is bet365. I now look for matches that are between the 40th and 50th minute. I now bet that less than 5 goals will be scored during the rest of the match. If the score is 0-0, I bet on “less than 4.5 goals”. However, one must not take every game. I take the following into account:

– A maximum of one goal may have been scored so far. If it is already 3-1, for example, there is a high risk that a few more goals will be scored in the second half, because the defences are probably not having a good day.
– The pairing should not have a house-high favourite. This can easily be seen from the odds. This takes away the danger of a landslide victory by a favourite against the underdog. In even games, there are never really many goals, especially not 5 in the 2nd half.
– I look at what has happened in the game so far. Games with e.g. a lot of corners in the 1st half I don’t bet on. Here it could be an offensively led game, just the goals are missing so far. If the knot bursts once, then maybe many goals will fall.
– If a team gets a red card, I don’t bet either. Such games sometimes develop a strange momentum of their own and harbour the danger of being goal-laden.
– Generally, the less that has happened in the game so far, the better.
– I also don’t bet on women’s games or youth games. Here, on average, there are significantly more goals.

If you take all this into account, you are actually on the safe side. You can still score 4 goals in the remaining 50 minutes without losing your bet.

I looked at the results of the entire last Bundesliga season. There were exactly two games in which a maximum of one goal was scored at half-time and more than 4 goals were scored in the second half. In both cases, however, a European Cup participant played against a promoted team (Bremen and Stuttgart against Freiburg). I probably wouldn’t have bet on these games anyway because of the clear favourites. If something should go wrong, I halve my winnings every now and then, so I don’t drop too far. Otherwise, of course, I put the winnings right back on the next bet.

Since I keep precise statistics, I can tell you that the odds for such bets are only about 1.015 on average, but in the long run it pays off. Only two such bets bring a return of 3%. And that’s every day, if you want it. Where else can you get that?

Sometimes you are lucky and there is the bet “less than 6.5 goals”. That is extremely rare in the 40th minute at 0-0. Here, of course, you are even more on the safe side. Sometimes, however, you are unlucky and in a suitable match you can bet up to a maximum of 3.5 goals per game. No matter how tempting it may be, because the game seems to be perfectly suited and the odds are even better, leave it alone!

Maybe you will like my strategy and decide for the small but safe return. In any case, I have never been so relaxed when betting as I am with this strategy.