I use two betting strategies based on goal bets.

First strategy:

Known strategy: bet on late goals from the 76th minute onwards when there is a favourite and an underdog in the match.

Proposal for improvement: Only in live betting if the following conditions are met: The favourite must not be in a 2 goal lead, otherwise there is no incentive to play forward and the outsider is assumed to have no dangerous strikers and is also at the end of its tether = low probability of later goals.

When choosing a match, one should not only fixate on the odds, but also make sure that the favourite has at least twice as many points in the overall table or shows a rank in the overall table that is 8 or more places better, good even if the team has scored a lot of goals overall.

Second strategy:

I look for games where it is very likely that more than 2.5 goals will be scored. I wait for the first 25 minutes and if no goal has been scored by then, I bet on over 1.5. The odds are 1.55 to 1.66 (depending on the game).

The advantage of this is that there really are teams in almost every league that score over 1.5 goals in 5 out of 6 games. Simply looking at the previous games is enough for betting preparation.

Disadvantage: You have to hope that no goal is scored in the first 25 minutes, otherwise you cannot bet over 1.5 goals at good odds. Mostly where there is a clear favourite and in the ‘exotic’ leagues the goals are estimated to fall in the first 20 minutes.

Other disadvantages result directly from random events in the games, such as the favoured team getting a red card and no longer being able to exert pressure. The favourite is extremely unlucky and only hits crossbars or cannot get through the defensive wall of the opponent. That’s why it’s better to choose games where both teams can play football and not just stonewall.

It is also common when a team has more important games ahead of them, e.g. in the Champions League, that they will not make a special effort in the domestic league during the week.