Goal Betting Strategy – Over 2.5 Goals

I specialise mainly in single bets on over 2.5 goals. In doing so, I rely primarily on easy-to-find statistics. I take the last 10 games of both teams into account and look at how often they played “over”. I also calculate how many goals the home team scored at home and how many goals the away team scored away from home and how many goals were scored on average in the respective home and away games.

Another point is the H2h matches, i.e. previous matches between the respective teams. In my experience, there are teams that show a clear trend when they meet.

Influence criteria for goal bets on the Over 2.5

 – Last 10 matches between the two teams
 – Average of goals scored by the home team in home matches
 – Average of goals scored by away team in away matches
 – Average of total goals scored in home and away matches respectively
 – H2h balance in terms of goals scored

If at least three of the points listed above speak for an Over or Under, in my experience you can play the respective bet, provided the odds reach a certain minimum value. I do not play below betting odds of 1.75, especially for goal bets, as the luck factor due to goals hitting the post etc. is always given.

With live bets, it is also advisable to be sure of winning the goal bet during the match if a certain uncertainty arises. For example, if you bet on an Over 2.5 at odds of 1.85 before the match and two goals have already been scored after about 20 minutes of the live match, you can hedge your bets at very high odds.

Goal betting with calculation system

I try to make betting profits in many ways, but I would like to present my own (through tinkering) developed goal betting calculating system.

Any value generation example

Home team:

12 home goals : 9 home games= 1.33
16 away goals : 9 away games= 1,77
1,33 + 1,77 = 3,1
3,1 : 1,80 = 1,73

[Note: the 1.80 as a constant I found out for myself through practical experience, there is no theoretical basis]

In the table, 1.73 is marked in the lower 2-goal range. This is how I calculated the probable number of home goals. So you can say the home team is likely to score 1 to 2 goals. However, two goals are slightly more likely (see table).

Away team:

6 away goals : 9 away goals= 0.66
9 home goals : 9 home games= 1.00
0,66 + 1,00 = 1,66
1,66 : 1,80 = 0,93

The value is marked in the lower 1-goal area in the table. This is how I calculated the probable number of away goals. So you can say team 2 is likely to score 0 to 1 goal. However, 1 goal is more likely (see table).

This results in the most likely outcomes for potential goal bets

1:0
1:1
2:1
2:0

However, the most likely outcome is 1-1 or 2-1, resulting in the assumption or tip that 2 or 3 goals will be scored in the entire match.