After I could achieve some really good successes with my tennis strategy (by surface), I thought to myself. Gosh, I’d have to invent a similar tactic for our favourite sporting child No.1, the Fussball-Bundesliga
No sooner said than done: as with tennis, evaluation work is necessary again, but it’s actually fun. I have every single player in the Bundesliga in a specially made form database Every week I take as basic the grades in the trade journal Kicker For the grade received, the playerreceives the following score
– Grade 1 : + 1 point
– Grade 2 : + 1 point
– Grade 2.5 : + 1 point
– Grade 3 : + 1 point
– Grade 3,5 or 4 : 0 points, no change
– Grade 4.5 : – 1 point
– Grade 5 : -1 point
– Grade 5,5 or 6 : -1 point.
Each individual player starts with 4 points on the 1st day of play. With each grade received during the season, he rises or falls, or remains unchanged. The trick is that the point scale only goes from 1-7. This means that if a player only has 1 point, he cannot drop any lower and remains at 1 even if he gets a very bad grade. It is the same if a player is on 7 points and keeps getting good grades.
Now comes the real exciting moment: I’ll now take the 2 examples of matches that will still be played against each other during the day. Augsburg – Mainz and Freiburg – Düsseldorf.
I have worked all the encounters into my database after the fact since Matchday 1.
Now I take the probable line-ups of the teams to play against each other. These are always available on Thursdays in the Kicker or on the net. They are not always 100 per cent correct, but are very likely.
Augsburg: Manninger(7 points), Philp(4), Callsen-Bracker(3), Klavan(6), Ostrzolek(3), Baier(7), Koo(5), Moravek(1), Ji(4), Werner(6), Mölders(3) = total 49 points.
Mainz: Wetklo(7), Pospech(7), Svensson(7), Noveski(7), Junior Diaz(5), Zimling(4), Baumgartlinger(7), Soto(7), Ivanschitz(7), Szalai(7), Parker(6) = total 71 points.
Mainz is 22 points better. Now of course you ask yourself: what do I bet now? You can see quite clearly that many Mainz players have the maximum number of 7. By the way, many players in the league have that and that’s why many teams are close together. Then it’s better not to type these games. In this case, however, it is 22 points difference
In many weeks of testing I have now determined that you should tip a game if the difference is 8 or more points In this case, that means that normally Mainz would clearly win against Augsburg according to the form.
The other match today, Freiburg vs. Düsseldorf, results in 74:51 points, so also a clear win from SC Freiburg
Of course, you never have a guarantee, but at least a considerable basis to make a prediction. The only real shortcoming are sending-offs in the running game. For example, yesterday in the Dortmund vs HSV match.
Not everything works out, but yesterday I was at least right:
– Stuttgart – Bremen 54:64 -☻ Victory Bremen
– Hannover – Hoffenheim 54:40 -☻ Win Hannover
– Bayern – Schalke 77(!):56 -☻ Win Bayern
The games Gladbach – Leverkusen (69:72) and Fürth – Wolfsburg (45:41) seemed too risky to me, because too equally strong The first game ended in a draw. The second game was won by the Wolves by a narrow margin.
BVB – HSV (77:39) went completely wrong, but there was the red card for Lewandowski and the flu epidemic at Dortmund. And Frankfurt – Nuremberg (72:57) didn’t work out either, but at least I would have made a good profit with a betting system or if I had played all the games individually with the same amount.
Note: The same can of course be done for the 2nd Bundesliga and the 3rd Liga. The Kicker always has all the probable line-ups in the current issue in a very exemplary way.
A real treat and fun for all statisticians. After all, fun and excitement should be at the top of the list. Success comes with time, not with a jolt.
Much fun and excitement wishes
