Timing of prices on betting exchanges leads to surebets

Dear fellow bettors,

I have been watching the prices on betting exchanges for some time now, preferably the football bets of the “big” clubs. I have noticed that some time before the match, i.e. 24-48 hours before kick-off, the odds for the favourite are significantly higher than shortly before kick-off. This was most evident in the Champions League / . The trend is particularly pronounced for the English clubs, because that is where the most money is bet.

However, this also applies to Real Madrid and Bayern Munich. The team should only have an above-average reputation and play against a supposedly “small” team.

So I bet on the favourite (back) a day in advance and watch the price. Until shortly before kick-off, many fans bet on your club and the odds go down. Now is the time for a lay bet and nothing can go wrong.

Recent example: 20.09.2007 AE Larisa (Greece) – Blackburn Rovers (England)

The odds in the morning for “Back” Blackburn were 1.69 shortly before the start of the match “Lay” with 1.57

107.65 “Lay” Blackburn for 1.57 (possible win 107.65 euros; loss 61.35 euros).

No matter how the game turns out, you can only ever make a profit of 7.65 euros. After deducting the 5% commission, you still have 7.26 euros left.

If you are not familiar with Back/Lay, you should calculate the stake for the Lay bet according to the following formula:

Stake (Lay) = Stake (Back) * Odds (Back) / Odds (Lay) Stake (Lay) = 100,- * 1,69 / 1,57 = 107,65 Euro

I will not go into the derivation, because it is not as trivial as the formula suggests.

Before you use this system, please check for yourself whether my observation is correct, but I think it fits like this.

Then again the example from the strategy:
Step 1 Back bet: 100,- Euro “Back” Blackburn for 1,69 (possible profit 69,- Euro; loss 100,- Euro).

This should be clear (quite ordinary bet)

Step 2 Lay bet: 107.65 Euro “Lay” Blackburn for 1.57 (possible profit 107.65 Euro; loss 61.35 Euro)

107.65 Euro Lay means 107.65 Euro is the stake of the Back, i.e. the user who accepts your Lay bet as Back. He thinks Blackburn will win, you think Blackburn will not. If he bets 107.65 euros at odds 1.57, he can win 61.35 euros (this would be your loss if Blackburn wins). If Blackburn does not win, you receive the stake of the backer – i.e. you win his stake of 107.65 euros. (possible profit 107,65 Euro; loss 61,35 Euro)

Now there are 2 possibilities in the game:

1. Blackburn wins

You win 69 euros from the back bet
But lose 61.35 euros from the lay bet
Net profit: 7,65 Euro

2. Blackburn does not win

You lose 100 euros from the back bet
but win 107.65 euros from the lay bet
Net profit 7,65 Euro

Either way, you are assured of your winnings at the odds quoted. The important thing about the strategy is just to predict the odds well and that requires some experience and also luck, that there is not any bad news