Rules
1. home games (only not against one of the five teams) home win.
2. away games (like a.) but only DCX2 betting
3. do not bet on any match of the five if cup, CL or EL are before or after the match
4. do not bet between 1,40-1,49 and 1,90-1,99
5. introduce bankroll management
6. carry out research and do a post-match analysis whether winning or losing
7. assign one of these bet types to one of the teams and keep Home Win, Both Goal, Over 2.5 Goals in Game, Team Goals Home 2+, DCX, HC-1
8. Calculate probability based on the odds offered,
9. never look at form alone, but separate home / away form and look at duels.
10. do not bet on derbies
11. after six wins in a row or more, there will always be a draw or a defeat at some point
Market = watch leagues, create divisions by major leagues and minor leagues and risk leagues.
Major leagues: Germany, Italy, France, Spain, England,
minor leagues: Portugal, Belgium, Netherlands, Austria, Denmark, Switzerland
Risk leagues: Russia, Romania, Hungary, Czech Republic, Poland, ect.
Why the division?
In the Netherlands there are only the smallest odds for Over 2.5, but there are more goals per game than in France. In England, Spain, Germany and Portugal, the same clubs are almost always to be found in the top third and therefore there are also only the smallest odds on these games.
Selection of matches
max. per league two games, means if you take the best 5 teams and use only home games, you rarely get more than 2 home games, it can even happen that all away games. In this case, based on the analysis, you pick the two best games that are most likely to come through.
The strategy now in a combi pack: here I use several betting slips, but only bet 2-10 euros depending on how high the overall odds are. At the moment I’m betting a Germany combi from the 1st Bulli to the regional league, a Great Britain combi (1-5), (Scotland (1-3), Ireland 1, Northern Ireland 1 and Wales 1. A Southern combi (France, Spain, Italy, Portugal) and a mixed combi (Netherlands, Austria, Switzerland, Denmark, Belgium).
Procedure for selection
If you have considered all the points above, you will get between 20-60 games on a match day, which you cannot and should not try to predict all of them. Also, hardly anyone will have the time to analyse every matchday in the week in detail and to carry out research every time. Let’s take the first matchday of the Bundesliga and the top 5 of last season + the season before last. So we have Bayern, Wolfsburg , Dortmund, Leverkusen, Gladbach and Schalke, but that’s now 6 teams.
Bayern – HSV = Bayern over 2 goals in the match, home win, HC1-1 and Over 2.5 in the match.
Leverkusen – Hoffenheim = both goals in the match, Over 2,5 goals in the match
Dortmund – Gladbach
Wolfsburg – Frankfurt = home win and over 2 goals in the match
Schalke play away in Bremen
This leaves Bayern, Leverkusen and Wolfsburg with home games. Bayern 80%, Wolfsburg 75% and Leverkusen 60% probability of winning.
Now you do this with all the leagues you like, understand and think everything is going normally, so no suspicion of manipulation or shooting.
Once the 18 to 24 games are fixed, you have to decide whether you want to bet on such combinations as I do or whether you want to mix the combinations or put them together according to risk level Whereas you can’t go on the form until matchday 7, because you don’t have any values to derive. But with the probability, you can also use the last 10-20 games of a team, at least that’s what the football widow recommends.
My system is based on an Excel evaluation that I have created and refined over the years, but what Excel can’t do is filter out the miracle bags that exist every matchday in almost every league. Next, I have to say that the most frequent source of error is myself, I stick to my own guidelines for 3-4 weeks and then there is another week when I don’t and fall flat on my face. For the beginners among us, I advise you to practise the whole system on paper at the beginning. This would help you to find out whether the strategy you have chosen is correct or, in the case of follow-up research, where the mistake was made. I expressly advise against betting on a form favourite as if it were a home game, even in the away games. Why? Every year you see teams that don’t perform as well away as they do at home in the fortress. There are coaches who change tactics and line-ups in away games, because champions or promoted teams are 75% determined by points in away games, the best example being France II.
A small addendum to games of the league leader, every opponent gives more than 100% of performance when playing against the league leader, the whole thing becomes even more dangerous when the opponent plays at home, because who doesn’t want to give the league leader a leg up. My example here is Barcelona, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, PSG and Juventus Turin, none of these teams remained undefeated, but with none of these teams you could have read this before.
Conclusion
At the beginning of the season it is difficult to assess the teams correctly after the arrivals and departures, friendlies are test matches and may only be attributed to a fraction of the form. At the end of the season, you have to consider whether it’s about the pineapple or something really important. Every team can compensate for injuries, unless the mainstays/axle break away, in which case you should avoid betting on these games. After a shooting match with a lot of goals, 80% of the time there is a loss, because the new opponent/coach adjusts to such things, but whether you get the 20% is usually a matter of luck. My favourite types of bets are in this order -☻ both goals (because there are usually good odds), team goals 2+ (because here the odds are balanced in relation to the risk approx. 1.45 – 1.85), over 2.5 goals in the match (because it doesn’t matter who wins as long as 3 or more goals are scored in the match) and then only the home win. If the opponent is in the bottom third of the league and scores few goals, you can also bet on the home favourite in a home game on HandyCap -1.
With my system you don’t have to hedge, if you have found your own recipe after a few matchdays how to put which games together in a combi and you stick to the bankroll management and the odds distribution (total odds high = smaller bet or total odds low = higher bet) then you would have to bet 75% of the combis, no matter whether 1-2s, 1-3s, 1-4s or 1-4s, 1-3, 1-4 or 1-5 combos, but only if the performance of the team, the weather and the kick-off time of the game are right (this means that many teams play differently during the week than at the weekend -☻ the best example here are the English weeks).
Let’s make a example for week 31/2015, even if you can’t bet on certain leagues yet because it’s the beginning of the season, but it should serve as an example! 2nd Bundesliga to Regionalliga Bavaria, Ireland, Denmark, Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Finland, Austria, Russia, Japan, China, Argentina, Brazil, Iceland, Romania, Ukraine, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovenia, Poland, Bulgaria, Scotland, USA, Chile, Colombia etc.
That’s 22 games for this weekend, but Midtjylland , Basel and Celtic are playing in the CL and Gothenburg and Rosenborg are playing in the EL this week, so I’ve removed those five games for known reasons. That leaves 17 games for the combos and then after the sifting there are 9 games left (the rest have fallen through the cracks). And yet 1-3 games out of the 9 will probably be wrong because I didn’t choose the right type of bet.
I play 3 combos which look like this:
Kaiserslautern team goals home 2+ for 1.92 wrong
Mainz 05 II both Goal in the game for 1,80 correct
Palmeiras home win for 1.70 wrong
Total odds = 5.88 with a stake of 2.43€ possible return = 14.29 ./. 5% tax
Regensburg home win for 1.50 correct
Hamburger SV II Home win for 1,50 wrong
Austria Salzburg Over 2.5 goals in the match for 1.60 wrong
Total odds = 3.60 with a stake of 4.05€ possible return = 14.58 ./. 5% tax
Cork City both goal in the match for 2.25 wrong
Boca Juniors home win for 1.50
Viking home win for 1.55 wrong
Total odds = 5.23 with a bet of 2.43€ possible return = 12.71 ./. 5% tax
Hedging tip
Hamburger SV II home win for 1,50 wrong
Austria Salzburg both teams a goal for 1.55 correct
total odds = 2,33 with a stake of 6,08€ possible return = 14,17 ./. 5% tax
Means, if only one combination comes through I make a loss, but if two combinations come through there is a profit.
I hope I have written everything understandably, there are not so many mistakes and maybe a user tries his luck, I would be glad about a feedback.
post-processing
Game Urawa Diamonds vs Ventforet Kofu final score 1:1 half time 1:0; 38th penalty converted by Abe, equaliser in the 66th by Ito. What looked like a clear victory for the 2nd in the table against the 14th in the table, turned out to be a complete washout. As already written above, odds of 1.40 to 1.49 are no good. In this example, my decision to cancel the match was correct, because in Japan the game is played in two phases. In the first phase Urawa were top of the table, in the second phase they are now in 14th place with a 1-2-2 record and 5:6 goals and that has its reasons, which everyone can research for themselves.
The game HSV II against Schilksee, what happened, why didn’t they add another goal after the 1:0 lead in the 18th through Arslan against the promoted team? The equaliser in the 26th minute meant that Schilksee had arrived in the Regionalliga Nord. After the 0:5 defeat against Norderstedt, the first unplanned point was earned and the Schilksee coach unfortunately adjusted the team to the point. So both Goal would have been the better choice here.
Kaiserslautern vs. Braunschweig, there were chances without end on both sides, but if it ends 0:0 Braunschweig did everything right and FCK did everything wrong. Braunschweig even had the winning goal in the closing stages, but it didn’t work out and none of my picks would have gone through.
The game Seinäjoen against Inter Turku ended 0:1/0:1 and the 3rd in the table had no energy against Inter who moved up to 4th place. Haven’t read a match report or seen a summary to do my follow up yet though.
So I could now describe one game after the other, why my selection was wrong, what could have been the reason, but wrong remains wrong and thus all combos were lost.
A very strange weekend, 22 games, 11 right and 11 wrong picks, of the 5 EL/CL participants actually four games got through this time, only with Basel I should have picked HC1-1 and not both Goal, but the same happened with Örebro a 6:0 defeat.
Conclusion
The match selection was a bit unfortunate, Germany just starting the season, Scandinavia playing kind of weird and not according to stats and South America just taking a break. Means, I take leagues only when at least 6 games are played, better would be 6 home games, but then a third of the season is already over. There are always surprises, sometimes there are signs to leave something out, or to bake smaller rolls like in the game Sturm Graz against Grödig. Here you would have got 6,50 on the first half, 2,50 on the double chance, but I had to bet on Team Tore Gast 2+ for 4,40, because I thought Grödig would close the deal.
Try it yourself with this strategy, first on the note or with a small bet and if you want, you can give feedback, Wettbasis will forward the mail for sure.
I wish you good luck and a better hand than I had here in week 31, but if it always worked out, I would already be a millionaire.
Test No. 2
Leagues 1st Bulli to Regionalliga (only the best in form) 28.08. to 31.08.
Wolfsburg – Schalke 04 Tipp Team Tore Heim 2+ -☻ Final score 3:0/1:0
Dortmund – Hertha Tipp Home win and both Goal -☻ Final score 3:1/1:0
Bayern Munich – Bayer Leverkusen Tipp Home win and Over 2,5 -☻ Final score 3:0/1:0
Bochum – 1860 München Tipp home win and Under 2,5 -☻ Final score 1:0/0:0
Freiburg – Sandhausen Tipp both Goal -☻ Final score 4:1/3:0
Braunschweig – Karlsruhe both goals -☻ final score 6:0/2:0
Stuttgarter Kickers – Cottbus Tipp home win -☻ final score 0:0
Mainz 05 II – Sonnenhof Tip Home Win -☻ Final Score 2:1/0:0
Bremen II – Dresden Tipp Over 2,5 -☻ Final score 1:2/1:0
Augsburg II – Amberg Tipp both Goal -☻ Final score 2:2/1:1
Regensburg – Bayreuth Tipp home win and Over 2,5 -☻ Final score 1:1/1:1
Hannover II – Wolfsburg II Tipp both Goal -☻ Final score 1:2/0:2
Norderstedt – Hildesheim Tip home win -☻ Final score 3:1/2:1
Zwickau – Lukenwalde Tipp home win -☻ final score 3:0/3:0
Berliner AK – Auerbach home tip -☻ final score 3:0/0:0
Mannheim – Lautern II Tipp Home win -☻ Final score 2:0/1:0
Offenbach – Spielberg HC1-1 tip -☻ final score 2:1/0:1
Dortmund II – Aachen Tip DCX2 -☻ Final score 0:1/0:0
Rödinghausen – V. Köln Tipp both Goal -☻ Final score 4:2/2:1
Oberhausen – Gladbach II Tipp both Goal -☻ Final score 2:0/2:0
20 games picked out and still no luck in the end, 5 games were wrong because I saw too much, my team couldn’t score the goal for both Goal, or because one had just weakened and couldn’t get beyond a 1:1.
Everyone has to know for themselves whether they want to place individual bets, whether they want to avoid games with odds between 1.01 and 1.39 or whether they want to bet on risk games where the bookmakers go in the other direction with the odds. Because every weekend a favourite stumbles, sometimes only at the break and at the end X or completely and then also lost with HC. But there are no such things from my database, because my formulas and functions only look for the presumably safest tips. And that’s what comes out of the second attempt. Sorry but the third try has to sit.
Test No. 3 (after the European Championship qualification 04.09.-07.09.)
Ingolstadt – Wolfsburg Tip Away Win
Bayern Munich – Augsburg Tip Team Goals Home 3+
Hannover 96 – Dortmund Tip Away Win
Kaiserslautern – Freiburg Both Goal Tips
Sandhausen – Bochum both goals
Stuttgarter Kickers – Magdeburg home win tip
Mainz 05 II – Würzburg home win tip
Regensburg – Buchbach home win tip
Amberg – Illertissen both goals
Nürnberg II – Schalding home win tip
Meppen – Norderstedt both goal tips
St. Pauli II – Wolfsburg II both-goal bets
Berliner AK – Leipzig II home win tip
Nordhausen – Zwickau Tip Draw
Mannheim – Saarbrücken Tip Under 2,5
Elversberg – Offenbach Tip Under 2,5
Cologne II – Aachen Tip DCX2
FC Kray – Gladbach II Tip both Goal
Only 18 games to choose from here, but let’s see where my mistakes lie or if I made a good selection.
Analysis and review
In the whim of nature, I did something that shouldn’t be done, at least not according to my principles.
There is nothing wrong with the strategy, but you should just definitely wait for the first 5 games, pay attention to Champions League / Europa League / Cup and then also keep an eye on form. Overseas, Asia, or Scandinavia, all surprises.
Even my last selection went down the drain because too many home favourites only played X, were partly behind but didn’t win.
Sometimes a lucky streak, sometimes unfortunately a miss, but that’s life. Nevertheless, I am convinced that the betting strategy is a good approach that can help many users.
